Thursday, December 18, 2014

Fifteen Weeks in the Books: Contenders, Pretenders, Spoilers and Observational Corrections

By Sports Enthusiast and Guru Ryan Mitchell, Contributing Blogger



Back in early October, we examined each NFL team, as they currently stood after Week 5, and offered optimism and criticism of each. We’re now approaching Week 16 and the stretch run of the season, so what better time to look back and look forward at the teams that matter, as well as those that surprised us?

Contenders:

Seattle Seahawks: At last look, the defending champions were coming off a hot start and big wins, thus earning them the top spot in our review. Go figure, a mini tailspin would ensue in which the offense faltered in losses to the Cowboys and Rams, along with close calls against the lowly Panthers and Raiders. Since that point, they have greater balance in the running game, led by Marshawn Lynch, and have seriously tightened things up defensively after a sluggish start. The offense is still a concern, as they lack big play explosiveness, but seem to patch things together week after week. This year’s edition will have to rely even more on their defense to lead them in the playoffs. Look for them to win the NFC West, if they can beat Arizona this weekend, and gain a significant edge with a home game come January.

Denver Broncos: The defending AFC champions have seemingly coasted through the 2014 season with less fireworks than last season, yet similar success. As predicted, San Diego gave them more of a challenge for the AFC West divisional crown before faltering. A deflating blowout loss, instead of a narrow loss in New England, and a heavier commitment to the running back by committee basically sum up what we know about this team this season, as compared to last. Injuries to Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball have changed the dynamic from earlier in the year. These guys aren’t running away from teams in the fashion of 2013, but they are winning and the defense is improved from last season. Look for them to clinch a bye and the #2 seed heading into the AFC Playoffs. From there, it’ll be a wait and see approach.

New England Patriots: It’s very easy to argue that the Pats have been the best team in the NFL since our last look at them. They have only one loss in that time (@GB) and have lived up to their title of the annual “model of consistency.” Much like Denver, they have plugged and played running backs Shane Vereen, Jonas Gray, Stevan Ridley and newcomer LeGarrette Blount, to create a dual threat offensive attack to complement their passing game. The offense is the best in the league and torches even the best defenses on a weekly basis. There is no reason to think they won’t be the team to beat in the AFC Playoffs, as they will run away with the AFC East and don’t look like they’re stopping there. As of now, they have surpassed the Broncos as the likely Super Bowl favorite.

Green Bay Packers: A complete 180-degree turnaround from early to late season for the 2014 Packers has them in a fight with the Lions for the NFC North title. In October, we worried about their ability to stop the run defensively, but ever since, they have made great strides. They continue to force turnovers and force the other team make plays. Offensively, they couldn’t be any more impressive. They run the ball effectively, and Aaron Rodgers may be the best QB in the league this season. It’s hard to see this team being beat by anyone outside of their kryptonite opponent in Seattle come playoff time. Look for them to win the NFC North and lock up the #2 seed in the NFC Playoffs. This team has to be considered the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, should they be able to avoid or beat Seattle.

Indianapolis Colts: Despite the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, who at the time was anchoring the running game, the Colts have been able to plug in young Daniel Herron with much success and offensive continuity. They have locked up the AFC South as predicted, and now look to finish a better than expected season on a high note. The offense continues to thrive under the improved Andrew Luck, despite injuries and consistent turnovers. They can score in bunches, and often in key situations late in games, which is invaluable. The defense has made strides toward consistency and creates turnovers each week, which fuels its success. Though it will always be the Achilles heel for this team, in 2014, it is better than when we last looked. Keep an eye out for this team in the AFC Playoffs, as they could spoil their way into the AFC Championship game, should they figure out how to finally beat the Patriots or Broncos.

Threats:

Dallas Cowboys:  At long last, Cowboy fans can rejoice their lack of appearance in the late season “pretenders” category, provided they play every game from here out on the road! Jerry’s team has somehow managed not to revert to back to their Jerry’s kids style of play come this December. The running game, featuring Demarco Murray, did not lose a step from earlier in the season, and neither has the play of the offensive line. Murray is now banged up but should continue to contribute at a high level. Tony Romo has taken advantage of having tons of time in the pocket and developed big play chemistry, while it’s Dez Bryant that makes this team explosive. The defense isn’t great, but it is improved, and consistently forces turnovers, creating numerous opportunities. Somewhat surprising, they’ve seemingly conquered their regular season woes but cannot rest on their laurels, as they have to finish the job in the next two weeks against the formidable Colts and divisional Redskins. Look for them to get the monkey off their back and win the NFC East, but don’t count on more than a short-lived cameo appearance come January.

Baltimore Ravens:  Over the course of this season, the Ravens basically followed suite to our projections and expectations by grinding their way through the AFC North race. They have improved the defense on the whole from the 2013 and found ways to incorporate Torrey Smith back into the offense. Now, with a deep threat in place, their running attack has been able to sustain its effectiveness, led by the resurgent Justin Forsett. They are dangerous because they are good on both sides of the ball and have cut back on killer offensive turnovers. Given their past track record of being able to go on the road and win in the playoffs, this is hardly a team that anyone wants to face. A favorable final two games on the slate should ensure a spot in the AFC Playoffs, and a chance to see this team go up against the elite AFC teams in a matchup that the schedule has denied us thus far.  

Pittsburgh Steelers: Much like their counterparts in Baltimore, the Steelers have impressively stayed on course with early season expectations. The offense has been expanded with big-time receiver play from Antonio Brown and equally solid contributions from dual threat running back Le’Veon Bell. They have transformed into more of a passing team and rely on their offense to win. The dumping of locker room knucklehead LeGarrette Blount hasn’t changed a thing. The defense is largely mediocre but forces turnovers and stops the run, which is a recipe for late season success. Two home games against AFC Playoff hopefuls stand between Pittsburgh and the AFC Playoffs. Look for them to do enough to get in, be it as AFC North champions or as a wild card.

Pretenders: 

Arizona Cardinals: As a fan of change and of unpredictability, it hurts the blog to put the impressive and well-rounded 11-3 Cards into the “pretender” category, but it must be done. Injuries have maligned an incredible start that saw them fly out of the gate and take the league by storm. The Cardinals avoided the concerns we expressed in October by plugging and playing new QB’s and RB’s for injured starters Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington, much to the credit of Head Coach Bruce Arians. It’s hard to argue that anyone has done more with less than he has this season in the NFL. All compliments aside, though, it just isn’t feasible that a team going on its fourth QB is going to be much of a Super Bowl threat, despite the game being played in its home stadium. The Cardinals have clinched at least an NFC Wild Card berth and have a shot to win the NFC West against Seattle this weekend. That seems rather unlikely, though, and expect them to grind out games as they have all season but fall flat in the Playoffs come January.

Detroit Lions: In short, the Lions “are who we thought they were,” as no other team provided as predictable a result over the course of the season from what we saw early on. The Lions used several close wins to springboard themselves into the NFC Playoff picture, as well as the NFC North race. The best defensive team in the league has been saddled with an offense that cannot consistently run the ball worth a lick. They struggle at times to put up points, despite having a potent wide receiver duo in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Overall, they epitomize a team that took advantage of games against weaker opponents, but for the most part, struggled against the better teams. Fortunately for them, they have one of each on their remaining schedule, which should afford them a spot in the Playoffs, with an outside chance at the NFC North crown should they sweep the Packers. Don’t count on that or their offense showing up in January.

Philadelphia Eagles: Quite the fall from grace for the Birds, as they squandered a 9-3 start and a shot at essentially locking up the NFC East by losing consecutive home games to NFC playoff teams. Offensive ineptitude, primarily on the hands of RB LeSean McCoy and QB Mark Sanchez late, may leave the Eagles sitting at home come playoff time. They have two road divisional games left, which may or may not matter depending on what Dallas and Detroit do. Overall, it’s a wasted season should they not get in, as they were in the driver’s seat coming off an emphatic Thanksgiving Day performance in Dallas. Should they sneak in, they are a potential one game matchup nightmare, but this seems rather unlikely now.

Cincinnati Bengals: The story of their season was fairly predictable and has played out as such, as this team continues to underwhelm despite a solid record. Their outlook is brief because, frankly, QB Andy Dalton just isn’t very good. It’s near impossible to have success in the AFC Playoffs without a top-of-the-line guy at that position. For all of the success they have had on the ground in the regular season, they’ve been exposed time and time again when it comes to passing the ball. They’ve also had their share of injuries, which hasn’t helped either. The harsh reality is that they’re the sort of team that will rely on the tie they have to get them into the AFC Playoffs, though we have a hard time believing they’re better than the Chargers, Chiefs or Bills, all of which likely won’t go. Unfortunately, Cincinnati fans will be subjected to another 60-minute session of Andy Dalton playoff quality football, which should ensure a quick exit.

Life Supporters:

San Diego Chargers: In a season in which injuries, the running game and schedule makers did the Chargers little to no favors, they have had a solid season. Credit has to be given to Head Coach Mike McCoy for keeping the team competitive, as well as the consistent QB Phillip Rivers, who does a lot with less compared to other playoff bound rivals. Their season is summed up by the fact that on consecutive late season home weekends, they were unable to beat the AFC’s two best teams. Fair or not, that likely has determined their fate, as it has so often in the past. Close but no cigar for a franchise that seems to always be in this spot.

Kansas City Chiefs:  A fairly well-balanced team and follow-up season to one in which many deemed to be “overachieved.” The Chiefs season can be summed up by one rainy night in Oakland in late November. A single loss to the then-winless Raiders cost the Chiefs a shot at the AFC West title race and more than likely a playoff spot. It’s the sort of game that you expect to be tough and maybe even close, but to lose Raiders and the Titans in the same season is unacceptable. Impressive wins over the Patriots and Seahawks only make their lack of presence in this year’s AFC Playoffs more maddening.

Buffalo Bills: They are very similar to San Diego, in that injuries and lack of a running game hurt them throughout the season, though they did come on late. Their defense is top notch and has helped them climb back into the AFC Playoff race. They must win out in Oakland and at New England and get help for any chance to get in, which is likely asking too much. That being said, their performances against Denver and Green Bay the past couple weeks cannot go unnoticed. The Dumb and Dumber line, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance,” should become their late season mantra.

New Orleans/Carolina/Atlanta: Sub-.500 records in a weak NFC South division categorize these teams into their own capsules of analysis. This division has been awful from the start of this season, all the way to the end of it. Whichever team comes out of it, which will likely be the Saints, will earn a spot in the NFC Playoffs. It’s not impossible to see them winning a home game during Wild Card weekend, which could spark a run, but the fact that they’ll be hosting a game is downright disturbing enough. Hopefully, during the offseason, these teams find better coaches, personnel and health.

Whoops:

San Francisco 49ers: The only one team deserves to be placed in this disgraceful category after falling all the way from being early “contenders” is the 49ers. The embarrassment stretches from on the field to off the field issues, leading to an utter end of season collapse. From rape and arrest allegations to the likely unwarranted dismissal of their head coach, this organization is an absolute mess. The offense regressed as the season went on, due to lack of production from aged RB Frank Gore and mediocre, at best, play from exposed QB Colin Kaepernick. The defense, however, held strong and kept the team competitive all the way to the end, which is a testament to Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, who dealt with a myriad of injuries and suspensions. Sitting at 7-4 with the NFC West division, or at least a Wild Card spot potentially theirs for the taking, the Niners scored 23 points over the course of two losses to rival Seattle, sandwiched with an inexcusable loss to the Raiders. All of this in spite of excellent defensive performances sealed the deal for the team from the city by the Bay. Thus, the 4-year window of greatness that started in 2011 will turn into one of the most mystifying in the history of the league. Expect Harbaugh to be elsewhere next year, and this roster to continue to regress.

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